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20 years counting: Two decades of sales reports -- plus August 2016's comics sales estimates

Monday, September 19, 2016

by John Jackson Miller

The August 2016 sales estimates are now online, marking a full 20 years that I've been doing the monthly sales reports, both here and in its previous incarnations. It's a whopper of a month, showing us some numbers that we haven't seen since back in the earliest days of my estimates. I'll get to some thoughts on the 20 years of reporting after we get to the usual business, which is why most of you are here.

As reported here Friday, Diamond Comic Distributors shipped 10.26 million comic books to North American comics retailers in August; we now know that 9.36 million of them were of the Top 300 comics. That figure just edges out the highest figure seen in the Diamond Exclusive Era, 9.34 million copies from April 1997, the very first month in which all publishers' books were again carried by Diamond following the Exclusivity Wars of the mid-1990s. Those reports back in the day were of preorders, so the final orders back then could have been higher — or not, as the lists then included many titles that didn't ship on time in the month.

As we know the total number of comics Diamond shipped for the first time this month, we can say that the Top 300 comics represented 91.27% of all comics ordered. This is in line with our past analysis here, speculating on what the "bubbling-under" titles would add. Overall, Diamond has shipped 64.7 million comics in the year to date, about 50,000 copies more than the same period last year; 57.98 million of those comics were in the Top 300s of their individual months, so the percentage there is again nearly 90%. The Top 300, thus, captures most but not all of the action.

DC's returnable Rebirth titles led the charts; ten of the eleven books over 100,000 copies were DCs. Given the 10% reductions Diamond preemptively makes for returnability, odds are there really were 15 titles in six figures. Harley Quinn #1 was #1 with nearly 360,000 comics shipped; that comes in just behind Marvel's Civil War II #1 as the year's single-month best-seller, but again, given the reduction, it's really more likely that the number of Harley copies shipped to North American retailers was around 396,000, making it the year's leader. We'll see where things shake out with the end of year report in January.

The aggregate changes follow. As you'll see, I've added rows for the overall number of comics sold monthly:

TOP 300 COMICS UNIT SALES
August 2016: 9.36 million copies
Versus 1 year ago this month: +43%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +51%
Versus 10 years ago this month: +27%
Versus 15 years ago this month: +57%
YEAR TO DATE: 57.98 million copies, -1% vs. 2015, +31% vs. 2011, +7% vs. 2006, +36% vs. 2001

ALL COMICS UNIT SALES
August 2016: 10.26 million copies
August 2016 versus one year ago this month: +44.02%
YEAR TO DATE: 64.7 million copies, +0.06% vs. 2015

TOP 300 COMICS DOLLAR SALES
August 2016: $34.16 million
Versus 1 year ago this month: +37%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +59%
Versus 10 years ago this month: +49%
Versus 15 years ago this month: +109%
YEAR TO DATE: $224.9 million, -2% vs. 2015, +47% vs. 2011, +35% vs. 2006, +93% vs. 2001

ALL COMICS DOLLAR SALES
August 2016 versus one year ago this month: +44.58%YEAR TO DATE: +2.66%

TOP 300 TRADE PAPERBACK DOLLAR SALES
August 2016: $7.55 million
Versus 1 year ago this month: +4%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +19%
Versus 10 years ago this month, just the Top 100 vs. the Top 100: -4%
Versus 15 years ago this month, just the Top 25 vs. the Top 25: -15%
YEAR TO DATE: $63.5 million, +8% vs. 2015

ALL TRADE PAPERBACK SALES
August 2016 versus one year ago this month: +5.53%
 YEAR TO DATE: +2.81%

TOP 300 COMICS + TOP 300 TRADE PAPERBACK DOLLAR SALES
August 2016: $41.71 million
Versus 1 year ago this month: +29%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +39%
Versus 10 years ago this month, counting just the Top 100 TPBs: +23%
Versus 15 years ago this month, counting just the Top 25 TPBs: +109%
YEAR TO DATE: $287.78 million, unchanged vs. 2015

ALL COMICS AND TRADE PAPERBACK SALES
August 2016 versus one year ago this month: +31.62%
YEAR TO DATE: +2.71%

OVERALL DIAMOND SALES (including all comics, trades, and magazines)
August 2016: approximately $57.66 million (subject to revision)
Versus 1 year ago this month: +32%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +52%
Versus 10 years ago this month: +54%
YEAR TO DATE: $388.35 million, +3% vs. 2015

RELEASES
New comic books released: 517
New graphic novels released: 293
New magazines released: 28
All new releases: 838

The average price of all comics offered in the Top 300 was $3.92, but the weighted price — basically, dollars divided by units — was $3.65, the lowest figure we've seen since August 2013. That's because of all the $2.99 DC books; the average price of comics in the Top 25 was $3.19, the lowest we've seen in many more years. The median and most common comics price was still $3.99.

Now that that important business is out of the way, let's take a little trip through time:

TWENTY YEARS COUNTING

As noted, this release completes twenty years of my doing monthly Direct Market sales reports. That's 240 months' worth — that math's easy to do — comprising sales reports for more than 136,000 comic books and graphic novels sold since September 1996.

That's more than one and a half billion comics that Diamond shipped — and a billion dollars' worth of graphic novels accounted for.

The real accomplishment, of course, is the industry's: it's the work of the publishers, Diamond, and retailers for moving all those copies. Still, it is for me a personal milestone. I've done some form of pre-publication cleanup and analytical work on almost all of those entries, and the calculations and presentation add up to something like a thousand hours, or about six weeks of my life, day and night. And I continued it long after I was no longer associated with the magazine where they were first published, Comics Retailer (later Comics & Games Retailer).

I've worked on the reports in hotel rooms and airports — wherever I happened to be when they became available. This month's report was particularly challenging, as I was amid a press junket for my new Star Trek novel trilogy. A lot of work's been done at 1 a.m. over the years, cleaning up the entries — which appear in all caps in Diamond's reports — as well as figuring out what publisher names go with the three-letter codes they get in the Diamond releases. And that's all before any math!

Clearly, I thought it was worth doing. Explaining why takes us on a trip through how the figures came to exist in the first place.

MONTHLY SALES CHARTS: THE EARLY DAYS

Prior to the early 1980s, the only public comics sales charts including actual numbers had appeared in fanzine articles collecting postal Statements of Ownership from the comics themselves. These, of course, reported only annual averages — and only took into account comics sold by subscription. There were, in The Comics Reader and later in Amazing Heroes, attempts to come at it from the other direction by surveying retailers; I began doing this in 1994 in Comics Retailer as "Market Beat," a column that continued until the publication's end. While I was able to generate average store sales for various titles with this, it was far from ideal — and such efforts did not speak to the number of copies in circulation.

We began to get part of that picture in the early 1980s. Capital City Distribution was one of several Direct Market distributors operating in that period, having started in Madison, Wis. in the spring of 1980 with 17 retail accounts and a half-dozen vendors. Cofounder Milton Griepp began publishing monthly sales charts in the company's newsletter — later magazine — Internal Correspondence. Having visited Capital City's archives and later ICV2's archives, I have most of these — and while sales charts began appearing in the publication as early as February 1984, it's really what came along in October of that year that changed the game.

October 1984 Internal Correspondence charts
Griepp did not include sales figures in his rankings; it's not clear that either Capital or the publishers themselves would have wanted to see those numbers publicized. Direct Market sales were still growing, and Capital was only a part of them; while today's Diamond sales figures are a pretty good picture of periodical sales overall, back then, no one distributor's sales would have painted a full picture. Instead, starting in October 1984 issue — the same one that included a full-page memorial for Direct Market founder Phil Seuling — Griepp published something which served a purpose for the retailers Capital worked with: "order index numbers."

These were presented as a ratio of the sales of a key issue each month.  Retailers could see that the average Capital customer preordered, say, 160 copies of Uncanny X-Men for every 100 copies of Amazing Spider-Man preordered. (The first month, Griepp used Secret Wars #10, the top seller, as the key issue.)  That permitted retailers to make adjustments in their orders to bring them into line with national trends. If you were only ordering 12 copies of X-Men for every 10 copies of Spidey, you'd know X-Men probably had room to grow.

This is a significant point: the monthly sales reports were never designed to be read by consumers. They were there to help retailers see larger trends. But because all the titles existed in mathematical relationship to one another thanks to the order index numbers, it became possible for anyone who knew the approximate real number of orders by the Direct Market of a single title to make an educated guess as to the sales of the others.

The problem with the method, of course, was that because Capital only represented a chunk of the Direct Market — and a different portion of each publisher's sales, too — a certain amount of error was built in. For a while, DC's trade terms with Capital were inferior to those Marvel was offering, and in that time, Capital's share of DC's total copy count was smaller. Capital appears to have represented about 11% of Marvel's total copies sold (including newsstand) in 1986, for example; its DC share was closer to 9%. Meanwhile its share of Kitchen Sink's sales in 1985 approached 23%. But a rough approximation was better than nothing.

And because it worked with any title, the publishers themselves, large and small, could estimate what the rest of the field was doing. I know for a fact it was being done; in addition to talking to publishers before 1995 about their calculations for "the magic number" — the number of copies one point on Capital's chart equalled — I have also obtained internal spreadsheets and documents wherein various publishers unlocked the various monthly tables.

When Diamond created its own newsletter — which evolved into Diamond Dialogue magazine— it began running its own order index numbers, keyed to a different title but functioning effectively the same way. No other distributors I can find published indexed sales figures, but Capital and Diamond had together captured enough of the Direct Market by the early 1990s that a pretty good model of overall sales could be worked out using the tables of either distributor. The fact that their rankings tended to coincide pretty well likewise added reliability.

And then... it all blew up.

BACK TO THE DARK AGES

In December 1994, Marvel announced it had bought Heroes World Distribution, then a regional distributor and then the third largest Direct Market distributor. You can read more about that era here and here; it changed pretty much everything.

The intent of the purchase was to make Heroes' World the exclusive distributor of Marvel comics to shops, and by the following summer, that became a reality. Every other distributor lost the ability to distribute Marvel's books as of July 1995 — except for Capital, which through a legal settlement kept them through the end of August. DC, under pressure from its corporate parent to respond in kind, crafted a deal to make Diamond the exclusive broker of its books — and then it was off to the races, with Image, Dark Horse, and Acclaim signing similar deals with Diamond that summer and Capital signing up Kitchen Sink, Viz, and some smaller publishers. I joked at a panel the following year that I'd never seen so many college kids signing contracts outside of the NBA Draft. You can see a record of the moves here.

Suddenly it was impossible for a retailer to get all the comics being published without accounts with three different distributors — and the charts and their order index numbers were of little use. Yes, Diamond's tables captured all Direct Market preorders for the publishers it carried — but it was missing Marvel and Capital's data. Capital continued with its own charts for a time making informed guesses about the titles it could not carry, but eventually those ended — and by the summer of 1996, Diamond bought out Capital.

There had been, by that point, a full year with no single unified sales chart. Matthew High, then of Antarctic Press, had likely become the first person to post estimates online with a series of reports on Usenet in December 1995 — but those only included Diamond. And Marvel — which had moved to Heroes World in part so it would no longer have to share the promotional limelight with multiple other publishers — came to miss the value of seeing charts that, so often before, its titles had topped. With Marvel in bankruptcy and under new management, I found it was amenable to sharing information for publication in a unified set of charts in Comics Retailer.

Armed with Heroes World's contribution — and the aid of a pool of publishers providing many data points to unlock Diamond's table — I published the first unified sales tables in over a year in a release covering September 1996's sales, just in time for Marvel's "Heroes Reborn" titles to launch. Jim Lee's Fantastic Four #1 was the first top seller on the charts; you can see all the #1s that followed here.

Yes, that timing was no mistake; Marvel had a reason it wanted the charts back running around that time. But getting the unified tables back was of greater importance: from then until now, the spreadsheet files in my system have always been titled "Harmony." Besides, DC was topping the charts just two months later anyway with the wedding of Superman.

By April 1997, when Marvel threw in the towel on Heroes World, the Diamond tables suddenly captured almost the entire comics preorder universe. But with the files already started and the industry still in a tailspin, I kept at it, hoping the information would be of some use to people in the trade. It turned out to be a longer-term commitment than I'd imagined!

GOING PUBLIC
As noted above, the distributor sales estimates had never been intended for general consumption, beyond the order-index-number-free consumer versions that had appeared in Previews. But the internet had changed that in the late 1990s, and with the market in decline, I was eager to make the most out of it, both in Comics Retailer and in Comics Buyer's Guide, its sister publication. 

It was novel having so much information to work with. At times, particularly early on, I tried to push the Direct Market data too far — attempting make it say more than it was able to support. In early 1998, having completed the first full calendar year of monthly reports, I took to Comics Buyer's Guide's annual Publishers Issue in an attempt to construct something of a Fortune 500, ranking the Top 50 publishers by their sales.

The problem was that the Diamond data only accounted for preorders within the Direct Market; before 2003, it was not possible to know a publisher's entire dollar sales. It also only reported sales on a few trade paperbacks. Only the Top Sellers were known. Beyond that, nothing was known about sales in the book channel. Every one of the narrow categories we had data for was led by Marvel, but much of what DC was selling was outside what we could see. In the end, I hedged and declared a tie. DC executives at that time were highly critical of the piece, and they had a point. We didn't run the feature again.

Another early misstep had come in mid-1998, where I'd seen a plateau amid the market's collapse and reported on it in CBG, wondering if recovery was at hand. It wasn't. I didn't have enough years of data yet to tell what a real turnaround looked like; the market had a ways yet to go before it hit bottom. When things finally began to turn in 2001, I approached it with more caution.

It was not uncommon in those early years for publishers responding to the numbers to seek to "work the ref," although that's not really the right metaphor: I was really more in the role of a reporter conveying what was coming from the scorer's table. One executive suggested I "get someone who knew something about statistics," not knowing about my poli sci master's degree which required plenty of stats. (I took Advanced Statistics for the Social Sciences from James E. Campbell, who did some of the earliest major work on the "midterm effect" in congressional elections and whose Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America just released. So me the numbers go back a ways.)

And in a larger sense, arguing the tables was kind of pointless as a competitive exercise, because if a publisher really did sell more copies to Diamond than the tables indicated, the Order Index Number meant that every publisher would have sold more. So the rankings of the individual books wouldn't have changed. As time went on, we heard those concerns less frequently. The numbers spoke for themselves, and as time went on and more data was collected, I got a little better at getting out of their way and letting them have their say.

TIME MARCHES ON

I was promoted out of day-to-day work on Comics & Games Retailer in 2003, but I continued to provide my monthly report to the magazine for publication — and then to Comics Buyer's Guide's website, for several years after that. During that time, I left the company to write comics and novels full time, launching Comichron in March 2007 to give my research a permanent online home. The magazines are long gone, but the history has not been lost.

All during that time, Diamond has increased the amount of information it's made available. In 1998, responding to DC about the same issues noted above, it began publishing market shares based on what it actually sold, meaning reorders were part of the equation and comics that never shipped weren't. In February 2003, it shifted to reporting the number of copies shipped in its ranking tables, rather than preorders. That put a stop to books making the charts that never came out.
 
And all along, it added to the number of graphic novels it reported sales on, from the Top 10 to the Top 25, then 50, then 100, then finally 300. Comics bestsellers went accidentally to 400 items for a while a couple of years ago, but while I reported those extra titles, I continued to keep 300 as the benchmark grouping.

Milton Griepp returned to publishing in the early 2000s with ICV2.com — literally, Internal Correspondence Vol. 2 — and began running estimates. John Mayo of ComicBookPage has also published his own estimates for many years, most recently at Comic Book Resources. We have conversed and compared notes on occasion, particularly when we see some warning flag in the data that suggests accidental misreporting. We all want the information out there to be correct.

A USEFUL MEASURE

There has always been, and will continue to be, criticism that the monthly figures do not include this or that portion of the comics market. That is absolutely true, but it is also acknowledged in the fine print on every page — as well as on our FAQ page.

Furthermore, I go to great lengths in my verbiage to be specific about what we're referring to. I've written the phrase "North American comics shops" more often than I can remember. It is not the case that every headline on this site has been as specific as it needs to be; nor can I guarantee that everyone who draws upon the charts will bring along the caveats in their own analyses. Probably the most common error involves reporting the categories; our sales figures for the Top 300 comics have often been described elsewhere as the sales figures for all comics. (In reality, as noted, we only got a figure for all comics in a month for the first time last week.)


http://www.amazon.com/dp/087349993X?tag=farawaypcom-20&camp=14573&creative=327641&linkCode=as1&creativeASIN=087349993X&adid=14HGYRJMCWYK2R3JX0W2&
I've tried hard not to repeat my early errors of making the numbers say too much; I rely on aggregate changes to a great degree. I've tended not to run trendlines on individual titles, as some analysts have; there's a lot of noise at the individual-issue level, a lot of it caused by the calendar. Two consecutive issues of a title can sell exactly the same number of copies, yet if one issue comes out the first week of the month and the other comes out the last week, the number of copies shipped will appear much different. I did present the figures for that manner in the Standard Catalog of Comic Books, but that was in the context of an attempt to record every fact known about each comic book.

I also don't spend a lot of time worrying with the horse race between publishers, although I recognize that is a favored pastime among many. Having survived the 1990s covering the market, I think the  important races are with our own past performance; if the industry isn't succeeding in aggregate, "who's winning" isn't that important.

And yes, I do believe the monthly sales reports remain both valid and reliable measures. I'm very confident that the figures are reporting what Diamond says they are; I've seen enough comparison data from publishers to dispel any doubt. Diamond's share of periodical sales, more than 90%, makes that part of the charts highly reflective of the whole market; and while its share of the graphic novel business is smaller, at around 35% it is by far the largest chunk for which we have access to monthly numbers. That's definitely worth looking at. (Digital will remain a conundrum for some time, I suspect — but that's a different column.)

I'd also like to talk about what I've observed about the state of the market in that time, but that, too, feels like a different column. In the meantime, I'll be here keeping watch on the data — and feeling, sometimes, like a numbers-geek version of the knight guarding the temple in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. The numbers might be just a rusty cup, but they also just might be important. You never know!

ONWARD!

So that's the tale of twenty years of monthly sales charts — all of which you can see here — and which are themselves just one data set I'm working with. I'm continuing to add material to the site, and I have enough of the monthly data to fill out many years before 1996 — including making a guess about the months when the charts went dark; those will appear here in the future. There are some additions and updates coming for the site which I'm excited about sharing in the days to come. (And we do have a Tip Jar if you've found the work useful.)

For now, let me thank you for following these reports — and also all the folks at Diamond and the publishers who've made them possible over the years. Be sure to drop in next month for the September sales report as we're able to publish our first 20-year comparisons in the Diamond Exclusive Era!


John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 20 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises. 

He is the author of several novels including Star Wars: Kenobi, Overdraft: The Orion Offensive, and Star Wars: A New Dawn, now available in paperback. His trilogy for 2016, Star Trek: Prey, ships in consecutive months in September, October, and November.

Visit his fiction site at http://www.farawaypress.com. And be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook.

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More than 10 million comics ordered in August, most since 1996; Harley Quinn is #1

Friday, September 16, 2016

by John Jackson Miller

http://www.shareasale.com/r.cfm?u=296154&b=44882&m=8908&afftrack=&urllink=www%2Etfaw%2Ecom%2FComics%2FProfile%2FHarley%2DQuinn%2D1%5F%5F%5F505963
Since 1998, Diamond Comic Distributors has never shipped more than 10 million comic books to comics shops in a single month. That changed in August, as DC's "Rebirth" resulted in shipments of 10.26 million comics to retailers in North America.

[UPDATE 9/19: The final estimates are out! Click for our August 2016 comics sales analysis and August 2016 comics sales estimates.]

It's the first time Diamond has ever revealed the full number of copies shipped in a single month; it previously has only announced a total for the entire year. (Last year's overall total was 98 million copies.) As a result of August's shipments, every category for 2016 has turned positive. Retailers ordered $57.66 million in comics and graphic novels in the month, up 31.62% -- bringing the year's total to $388.35 million, up nearly 3%. It's a five-week month versus a four-week month this time out; there have been 35 shipping weeks in the year to date, versus 34 weeks at the same time last year.

Although the full number of units ordered monthly has not been previously released, Comichron estimates of the Top 300 comics shipped in the past make it possible to guess at the most recent time that shipments topped 10 million. We know that the Top 300 comics sold 10.29 million copies in December 1996, for example, but that comes from a combination of Marvel's sales through Heroes World and Diamond's sales of everything else. Marvel's return to Diamond in April 1997 resulted in orders of 9.34 million copies of the Top 300 comics; it's possible that comics outside the Top 300 took that figure over 10 million, but it's tougher to believe that it topped 10.26 million. There weren't as many books beneath 300th place then, and lower-tier books were selling at levels a good deal lower back then.

Note that the Top 300 comics will almost certainly come in below 10 million in next week's final estimate report; the contribution of the comics at the bottom of the charts is well over 260,000 copies. But we will be able to see for the first time exactly what the bubbling-under portion accounts for in a sample month

And, importantly, since the comics unit changes across time are known, Comichron can now project monthly unit sales back to 2009. The change figures below suggest that last August's unit sales were 7.12 million copies. The Top 300 alone that month sold 6.52 million copies. We also now know that the direct market has ordered 64.7 million copies so far this year; last year's figure would have been almost identical. 

The aggregate changes:



DOLLARSUNITS
August 2016 vs July 2016
Comics13.30%8.28%
Graphic Novels16.50%19.21%
Total Comics/GNs14.13%8.95%



August 2016 vs August 2015
Comics44.58%44.02%
Graphic Novels5.53%7.15%
Total Comics/GNs31.62%40.77%



Year-to-date 2016 VS. 2015
Comics2.66%0.06%
Graphic Novels2.81%1.10%
Total Comics/GNs2.71%0.14%


DC led the dollar and unit market shares, posting its highest share since September 2013's 40.39%. The high-water mark for DC in the Diamond Exclusive Era was 42.27% in October 2011, the second full month of that year's DC reboot.

PublisherDollar ShareUnit Share
DC39.27%44.59%
Marvel30.78%32.11%
Image7.66%7.78%
IDW4.92%3.53%
Dark Horse3.08%2.28%
Boom1.98%1.57%
Dynamite1.57%1.14%
Titan1.19%1.09%
Viz1.14%0.41%
Oni0.83%0.55%
Other7.58%4.94%

Harley Quinn #1 was the top selling comic book, and DC took nine of the top ten slots. All of the issues have asterisks, denoting returnability. While returnable books have their orders reduced by an amount in the charts -- reportedly 10% -- as our recent analysis shows, the median returnable book improves on its reported sales levels. So while it's correct to say that returnability likely increased the numbers this month, it's not necessarily the case that the figures are inflated. In fact, the ultimate number of copies shipped in August might wind up higher than the reported figure.

Sales levels are quite a lot higher than at the corresponding time in the 2011 DC reboot, and it's worth noting at this point that returnability isn't the only reason why. Five years ago this week, I was discussing with a retailer that there was a natural check on just how big the New 52's sales could be: retailer cash flow. Sales in the spring and summer of 2011 had been horrible, meaning there was a limit to how much retailers could invest in preorders. 2016's event, meanwhile, jumps off from a superior position in terms of how much money is in the business. Add DC's returnability offer and its choice to stagger the release of new launches, and the current relaunch gets both a higher ceiling and a chance to possible have more durable long-term effects.

Diamond's phrasing was that the number was both the quantity shipped and the quantity ordered, so it's likely the 10.26 million-copy figure has not been reduced to account for returnability. 

The top-selling comics:

Comic Book
Price
Publisher
1Harley Quinn #1*$2.99 DC
2All-Star Batman #1*$4.99 DC
3Suicide Squad #1*$2.99 DC
4Amazing Spider-Man #16$3.99 Marvel
5Suicide Squad Rebirth #1*$2.99 DC
6Batman #4*$2.99 DC
7Batman #5*$2.99 DC
8Justice League #2*$2.99 DC
9Harley Quinn #2*$2.99 DC
10Supergirl Rebirth #1*$2.99 DC

While there isn't as much to say about graphic novels lately, it's worth remembering there will be an echo effect to Rebirth aiding the industry in the first quarter of 2017, when many of those titles will be collected. Winter is usually a time when the market needs the most help. The top-selling graphic novels:

Graphic NovelPrice Publisher
1Star Wars: Darth Vader Vol. 3: The Shu Torun War$16.99 Marvel
2Batman: The Killing Joke Special Edition HC$17.99 DC
3Black Panther Book 1: Nation Under Our Feet'$16.99 Marvel
4Spider-Man/Deadpool Vol. 1: Isn't It Bromantic$17.99 Marvel
5Star Wars Volume 3: Rebel Jail$19.99 Marvel
6Batman/Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles HC$24.99 DC
7Saga Vol. 6$14.99 Image
8Teen Titans Earth One Vol. 2 HC$22.99 DC
9Harley Quinn Book And Mask Set$34.99 DC
10Harley Quinn & The Suicide Squad: Adult Coloring Book $15.99 DC

The number of new items released by publisher was pretty high, as befits a five-week month. The number of new comics released increased 19%, while the number of new graphic novels was up 4%:

PublisherNew comicsNew GNsNew Magazines Total shipped
Marvel93350128
DC75331109
IDW5331084
Image5211164
Dark Horse2616042
Titan2010232
Boom228030
Dynamite226028
Viz024024
Oni102012
Other14411724285
Total shipped51729328838

The final estimates will be out next week, and mark a milestone for this site: August 2016 makes a full 20 years that I've been doing monthly reports, both on Comichron and before, in Comics & Games Retailer magazine. I'll have some thoughts to publish in the next week on how this project came to be, and some of the challenges involved with it; one is that I've often had to do the reports wherever I happened to be when they came out. I'm currently on a junket for my Star Trek and Halo books, for example -- television on Thursday and guesting at Dodecacon in Columbia, Mo., today. Neither rain nor snow nor comic convention shall hinder the monthly reports!


John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 20 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises. 

He is the author of several novels including Star Wars: Kenobi, Overdraft: The Orion Offensive, and Star Wars: A New Dawn, now available in paperback. His trilogy for 2016, Star Trek: Prey, ships in consecutive months in September, October, and November.

Visit his fiction site at http://www.farawaypress.com. And be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook.

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Ignore the asterisks: Most returnable comics improve on their reported monthly sales figures

Tuesday, September 6, 2016


by John Jackson Miller

A number of publishers carried by Diamond Comic Distributors have dabbled with accepting returns from comics shops over the years; DC, in particular, has embraced it more aggressively. With the returnable "Rebirth" titles sending the number of comics ordered per month skyward this summer, some have asked what the real, final impact is of comics offered with limited or full returnability. Diamond reduces orders of these comics in its monthly charts reportedly by 10% out of fairness. But do titles with the returnable asterisk sell better or worse than Diamond's initially reported figure in the end?

Comichron looked back on all the comics from 2014 and 2015 which were marked with an asterisk in the monthly charts and compared each with their final order numbers from the end of the years. Fully 98 returnable comic books from 2014-2015 also made the end-of-year charts; 60 in 2014 and 38 in 2015. Almost two thirds were from DC, with most of the rest from Image; IDW, Valiant, Dark Horse, and Dynamite accounted for the rest.

It turns out that the median returnable comic book in 2014-15 wound up eventually selling 10% more copies than Diamond initially reported. Either retailers didn't return any books, the excess came from reorders, or (most likely) some combination of the two — but for half the returnable books in Diamond's charts from 2014-15, the reduction wound up being erased by sales.

In fact, only 20 comics out of the 98 wound up selling fewer copies than Diamond's initially reduced monthly figures showed. Most were either issues of Convergence or titles from the spate of June 2015 launches that followed from DC; Convergence #0 only wound up selling 121,733 copies of what was likely an initial shipment of closer to 159,000. But that was an outlier — and that summer stretch last year seems to have been unusually weak for returnable books. Almost every such release in 2014 did better, along with most by the other publishers in 2015.

The list, presented below, shows the 40 comic books that we believe sold completely through, ranked by the amount sales wound up increasing over the initially reduced first-month report.


RETURNABLE TITLEISSUEPRICEPUBLISHERFIRST
MONTH
FINALCHANGE
Jan-14Serenity Leaves On The Wind1*$3.50Dark Horse47,28569,894 48%
Feb-14Serenity Leaves On The Wind2*$3.50Dark Horse38,63054,574 41%
Mar-14Serenity Leaves On The Wind3*$3.50Dark Horse37,51651,007 36%
May-14Trees1*$2.99Image31,92642,133 32%
Jun-14Outcast by Kirkman & Azaceta1*$2.99Image71,78893,819 31%
Mar-15Jem & The Holograms1*$3.99IDW29,01537,310 29%
Dec-14Autumnlands Tooth & Claw2*$2.99Image33,27241,482 25%
Nov-15Monstress1*$4.99Image30,04136,876 23%
Jun-14Wicked & Divine1*$3.50Image42,94852,250 22%
Nov-15Back To The Future2*$3.99IDW25,75131,079 21%
Oct-14Wytches1*$2.99Image67,99682,005 21%
Oct-15Back to the Future1*$3.99IDW67,01580,507 20%
Aug-14Fade Out1*$3.50Image34,44741,122 19%
Jul-14Wicked & Divine2*$3.50Image27,96233,082 18%
Apr-14Batman Eternal3*$2.99DC72,45784,818 17%
Apr-14Batman Eternal1*$2.99DC96,140112,388 17%
Jan-14Deadly Class1*$3.50Image34,57240,264 16%
Apr-14Batman Eternal4*$2.99DC70,91782,498 16%
Sep-15Sandman Overture6*$3.99DC48,55356,307 16%
Apr-14Batman Eternal2*$2.99DC76,87889,118 16%
Jun-14Trees2*$2.99Image25,51529,266 15%
May-14Batman Eternal7*$2.99DC62,04671,032 14%
May-14Southern Bastards2*$3.50Image25,81129,448 14%
Jun-15Starfire1*$2.99DC46,29852,638 14%
Jul-14Outcast By Kirkman & Azaceta2*$2.99Image55,12662,552 13%
Jul-14Low1*$3.99Image43,34049,071 13%
May-14Batman Eternal8*$2.99DC62,29470,413 13%
May-14Batman Eternal5*$2.99DC66,79575,435 13%
May-14Batman Eternal6*$2.99DC64,53072,765 13%
Nov-14Wytches2*$2.99Image58,34565,653 13%
Nov-14Earth 2 Worlds End8*$2.99DC26,94230,292 12%
Oct-14Earth 2 Worlds End3*$2.99DC34,99639,340 12%
Nov-14Earth 2 Worlds End7*$2.99DC27,61631,042 12%
Oct-14Earth 2 Worlds End4*$2.99DC34,43138,685 12%
Oct-14Earth 2 Worlds End2*$2.99DC36,53641,050 12%
May-14New 52 Futures End3*$2.99DC53,77160,334 12%
Oct-14Earth 2 Worlds End1*$2.99DC43,86349,115 12%
Nov-14Earth 2 Worlds End6*$2.99DC28,40731,803 12%
Aug-14Low2*$3.50Image28,42631,703 12%
May-14New 52 Futures End2*$2.99DC57,14763,592 11%

Note that not every one of these titles were intended to be returnable; in some cases, titles were late, forcing the distinction. So in those cases, returnability wasn't part of the initial marketing to retailers.

We find, overall, that the 10% putative reduction by Diamond in its reports is a safe figure to reduce by; three in four books wound up doing better in 2014-15, and in aggregate the returnable comics wound up with 7% more in final orders, total, than Diamond initially reported for them.

Does this mean Diamond's 10% reduction — presuming that's what it is — is ultimately unnecessary? It depends on where the book ranks on the charts. At the top of the charts, a preemptive decrease of 10% usually isn't going to change a book's position much, because the titles are more widely spaced out. If the full number of copies of Convergence #0 that Diamond shipped in April 2015 had been reported that month, its second-place rank would not have changed. Down near 100th place, a 10% change in reported orders is more likely to move a title 10 slots. (On the other hand, in the end, Convergence #0 only got a two-slot bump from where it would have ultimately landed after all returns were in; it was really the market's fourth-place book in April 2015 once all returns were accounted for.)

So as you approach the numbers already reported this summer and anticipate the data to come — and the release mix suggests we may see some significant moves to the upside in this week's August data — beware any claims that because returns are in the picture, that the real story must necessarily be worse than the monthly numbers suggest. Recent history suggests it's better.


John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 20 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises. 

He is the author of several novels including Star Wars: Kenobi, Overdraft: The Orion Offensive, and Star Wars: A New Dawn, now available in paperback. His trilogy for 2016, Star Trek: Prey, ships in consecutive months in September, October, and November.

Visit his fiction site at http://www.farawaypress.com. And be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook.

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July 2016 comics sales estimates: 16 issues top 100,000 copies sold, DC takes 30 of Top 40

Monday, August 15, 2016

by John Jackson Miller


http://bit.ly/CCJL1
The DC "Rebirth" event with its returnable $2.99 releases resulted in a boom for comics unit sales in July 2016, according to Comichron's analysis of data released by Diamond Comic Distributors. Retailers ordered 8.58 million copies of the Top 300 comics in the month, eclipsing the 17-year high set last month — and a whopping 16 comics had orders over 100,000 copies, the highest figure since June 2006, when Civil War #2 was released. [EDIT: The charts now appear on their proper place on the site. Click to read the estimates for comics sales for July 2017.]

DC's returnable comics, market by asterisks in the charts, are adjusted downward from the actual shipping level by around 10%, but don't expect that to mean that the real sales figures will be lower. We find that most asterisked titles wind up with sales higher than those reported by the time we see the yearly ones. So Justice League #1, which led the market with more than 209,000 copies reported, really shipped closer to 230,000 copies, and that may be closer to where it winds up at the end of the year.

The $2.99 pricing point led to some interesting effects. The average price of comics offered in the Top 300, which had reached an all-time high in June at $3.98, plummeted 20 cents. The avergage weighted price of comics — that is, the average price of all comics retailers ordered — plummeted still further, from above $4 to $3.61. (Marvel had some dollar books on the charts, too, contributing to the effect.) And because so many books in the Top 25 were from DC, the Top 25 average fell all the way to $3.23, a level we haven't seen in years. Click to see comics prices across time.

The result of the lower pricing was an unusual split between unit and dollar sales, with units improving much more year over year. The market is now 3.6 million comics units behind 2015's pace, which was inflated by a couple of million by Loot Crate. Graphic novels suffered in comparison with last July, which had a new Fables volume and a fifth shipping week to boot.

The aggregate changes are as follows:

TOP 300 COMICS UNIT SALES
July 2016: 8.58 million copies
Versus 1 year ago this month: +13%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +46%
Versus 10 years ago this month: +16%
Versus 15 years ago this month: +38%
YEAR TO DATE: 48.62 million copies, -7% vs. 2015, +28% vs. 2011, +4% vs. 2006, +33% vs. 2001

ALL COMICS UNIT SALES
July 2016 versus one year ago this month: +12.01%
YEAR TO DATE: -5.39%

TOP 300 COMICS DOLLAR SALES
July 2016: $31 million
Versus 1 year ago this month: +4%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +53%
Versus 10 years ago this month: +37%
Versus 15 years ago this month: +77%
YEAR TO DATE: $190.74 million, -7% vs. 2015, +45% vs. 2011, +33% vs. 2006, +90% vs. 2001
ALL COMICS DOLLAR SALES
July 2016 versus one year ago this month: +4.32%YEAR TO DATE: -2.59%

TOP 300 TRADE PAPERBACK DOLLAR SALES
July 2016: $6.74 million
Versus 1 year ago this month: -17%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +13%
Versus 10 years ago this month, just the Top 100 vs. the Top 100: -4%
Versus 15 years ago this month, just the Top 25 vs. the Top 25: +10%
YEAR TO DATE: $55.95 million, +9% vs. 2015

ALL TRADE PAPERBACK SALES
July 2016 versus one year ago this month: -19.12%YEAR TO DATE: +2.42%

TOP 300 COMICS + TOP 300 TRADE PAPERBACK DOLLAR SALES
July 2016: $37.74 million
Versus 1 year ago this month: unchanged
Versus 5 years ago this month: +34%
Versus 10 years ago this month, counting just the Top 100 TPBs: +15%
Versus 15 years ago this month, counting just the Top 25 TPBs: +77%
YEAR TO DATE: $246.07 million, -4% vs. 2015

ALL COMICS AND TRADE PAPERBACK SALES
July 2016 versus one year ago this month: -3.01%
YEAR TO DATE: -1.08%

OVERALL DIAMOND SALES (including all comics, trades, and magazines)
July 2016: approximately $50.52 million (subject to revision)
Versus 1 year ago this month: -3%
Versus 5 years ago this month: +52%
Versus 10 years ago this month: +44%
YEAR TO DATE: $330.68 million, -1% vs. 2015

RELEASES
New comic books released: 455
New graphic novels released: 275
New magazines released: 24
All new releases: 754

Be back next month as we complete a full twenty years of monthly estimates! 


John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 20 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises. 

He is the author of several novels including Star Wars: Kenobi, Overdraft: The Orion Offensive, and Star Wars: A New Dawn, now available in paperback. His trilogy for 2016, Star Trek: Prey, ships in consecutive months in September, October, and November.

Visit his fiction site at http://www.farawaypress.com. And be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook.

Read more...

Rebirth helps DC edge past Marvel in July 2016; Justice League tops charts in $50.5 million month

Friday, August 12, 2016

by John Jackson Miller

http://bit.ly/CCJL1
DC's Rebirth franchise allowed it to best Marvel in market share in July 2016 for the first time in nearly three years, according to new statistics released today by Diamond Comic Distributors. DC led Marvel in total orders of comics, graphic novels, and magazines in by a little over 1%, 35.36% to 34.20%.

That's in dollar terms; DC, aided greatly by the $2.99 price on many of its titles — including market topper Justice League #1 — led units by 40.96% to 35.69%. Orders for periodical comic books were up industry-wide by 4.32% this month over last July, a month that had one more shipping week. That week gave last July a 3% edge in overall dollar sales — but that missing week suggests this month's $50.51 million order performance should've been off by quite a bit more. So the market did pretty well against a tougher comparative. Last month, as we reported, was the best month for orders in the Direct Market in at least 20 years.

DC leading in market share is an uncommon occurrence, but it happens more than you might think. The most recent DC lead was October 2013, following a 12-point lead in September 2013, "Villains Month." It has happened 57 times since Diamond started reporting Final Sales Market Shares in August 1997 — reporting that began in part following the lobbying of DC, which generally did better in such shares than in those for preordered titles and which indeed led frequently in the years following that owing to its large jump on Marvel in the graphic novel department and the smaller number of titles being released in the period when Marvel came out of bankruptcy. (Marvel, by contrast, has led 170 different months. No other publisher has led any.)

Here are the July 2016 market shares:

Dollar Share Unit Share
DC 35.36% 40.96%
Marvel 34.20% 35.69%
Image 8.15% 7.56%
IDW 4.49% 3.00%
Dark Horse 2.83% 1.98%
Boom 2.05% 1.68%
Archie 1.36% 1.26%
Dynamite 1.19% 0.95%
Oni 1.14% 0.84%
Valiant 1.06% 1.03%
Other 8.18% 5.06%

More recent DC leads have come due to events or the DC 2011 relaunch. December 1999 had DC's largest lead over Marvel, more than doubling it at 41% to 18%. Notably, the combined Marvel and DC share this year has not much changed — it's in the high 60s, perhaps a little more than in the last couple of years. The other publishers seem to be holding their own.

Again, the market was off nearly $1.5 million from last July — meaning that the gap between 2016 and 2015 so far widened to $3.7 million, just around 1%.

Dollars Units
JULY 2016 VS. JUNE 2016
Comics -8.15% -3.24%
Graphic Novels -26.54% -35.83%
Total Comics/GNs -13.77% -6.16%
JULY 2016 VS. JULY 2015
Comics 4.32% 12.01%
Graphic Novels -19.12% -28.26%
Total Comics/GNs -3.01% 8.28%
YEAR-TO-DATE 2016 VS. YEAR-TO-DATE 2015
Comics -2.59% -5.39%
Graphic Novels 2.42% 0.26%
Total Comics/GNs -1.08% -4.94%

"Rebirth" gave DC eight of the top 10 entries on the comics chart this month. All the DC books were returnable, so Diamond has adjusted their orders slightly downward to account for that; that's what the asterisk means. By year-end, we may see that many of these books rank higher relative to other books for the year than the current ranking suggest they might.

Comic Book Price Publisher
1 Justice League #1* $2.99 DC
2 Justice League Rebirth #1* $2.99 DC
3 Batman #2* $2.99 DC
4 Civil War II #3 $4.99 Marvel
5 Batman #3* $2.99 DC
6 Nightwing Rebirth #1* $2.99 DC
7 Civil War II #4 $4.99 Marvel
8 New Super Man #1* $2.99 DC
9 Nightwing #1* $2.99 DC
10 Hal Jordan & The Green Lantern Corps Rebirth #1* $2.99 DC

Graphic novels were off by a lot this month, more than 19%; the category is more sensitive to the length of the shipping calendar. Monstress Vol. 1 from Image led the list:

Graphic Novel PRICE VENDOR
1 Monstress Volume 1 $9.99 Image
2 Harley Quinn's Greatest Hits $9.99 DC
3 Batman: The Killing Joke Special Edition HC $17.99 DC
4 Star Wars: Obi-Wan And Anakin $16.99 Marvel
5 Huck $14.99 Image
6 Southern Bastards Volume 3: Homecoming $14.99 Image
7 Saga Volume 6 $14.99 Image
8 Bone Coda 25th Anniversary $14.95 Cartoon Books
9 Wolverine: Old Man Logan Volume 1: Berzerker $16.99 Marvel
10 Agents of Shield Volume 1: Coulson Protocols $17.99 Marvel

Finally, we see that new comic release volume was down by 8% versus last July; Image shipped almost as many new comics as DC did. Nine percent fewer graphic novels were released.
 
Comics shipped Graphic novels shipped Magazines shipped Total shipped
Marvel 97 33 0 130
DC 63 31 0 94
Image 61 11 1 73
IDW 37 13 0 50
Dark Horse 21 18 0 39
Boom 21 10 0 31
Dynamite 19 7 0 26
Valiant 11 5 0 16
Oni 13 2 0 15
Archie 10 1 0 11
Other 102 144 23 269
TOTAL 455 275 24 754

The final order estimates for July will be along next week.



John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 20 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises.  He is the author of several novels including Star Wars: Kenobi, Overdraft: The Orion Offensive, and Star Wars: A New Dawn, now available in paperback. His trilogy for 2016, Star Trek: Prey, ships in consecutive months in September, October, and November.

Visit his fiction site at http://www.farawaypress.com. And be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook.

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