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Welcome to Comichron, a resource for comic book circulation data and other information gathered by
John Jackson Miller and other pop culture archaeologists interested in comics history.

 

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Hope and comics at 2 a.m.: The historical case for optimism

by John Jackson Miller


A good friend in the comics industry wrote me just before 2 a.m. last night. Earlier that day, Diamond Comic Distributors, its supply chain pushed to the brink by closures associated with the COVID-19 Coronavirus, had called a time out for a large portion of the business: while orders would still be fulfilled, no new comics scheduled to go on sale April 1 or later would ship until further notice, since it wasn't clear that said books would be printed, shipped, shelved, or bought with large swaths of the world on lockdown.

My friend asked, in the simplest terms, "What's to become of us?"

Comics would, of course, survive as a medium, my correspondent said, but the enormity of what had just happened had hit home. Not even World War II had stopped the circulation of periodicals — but then, printers were still operating, trucks were still running, stores were still open, and kids could get to them. The virus attacks both mobility and people's wallets; it's a challenge we've never confronted. My friend asked if I had any ideas about the future.

At Comichron, I'm in the history business, not the future business — but I have seen a lot. For those reading here for the first time, I've been a comics collector for 45 years and followed the industry's news for most of that time. Twenty-seven years ago I began writing that news, covering the chaos that was the comics industry in the 1990s as editor of Comics Retailer magazine, working alongside Maggie and (all too briefly) Don Thompson, who taught me plenty about the shape of the industry back to its beginnings in the 1930s. I've been a working comics writer and author for the past 17 years, and running Comichron for 13. I have collected what is likely to be the largest agglomeration of historical comics sales data outside the publishing industry — far more than the monthly Diamond charts you find here.

But none of that imbues one with psychic powers or a crystal ball — and certainly not with the ability to predict what may happen in a world where it's impossible to guess about anything even three days from now without resorting to charts. The future may be my bailiwick in my fiction, but not here; "this didn't age well" is a real thing. So I approach prognostication with humility — and the further knowledge that nobody really knows exactly what the current state of the retail base is in every location.

What I can apply, first, is all that history I was talking about...

THE GREAT ESCAPES

Will Eisner, friend to comics stores
“I’ve seen this business die three times. I’m standing here at the edge of the cave waiting for the resurrection.” 
— Will Eisner, 
Comic-Con International: San Diego, 1997

I once asked Denis Kitchen what Will Eisner was talking about in that famous quote from 1997: he speculated he meant the birth of the Comics Code in 1954, the collapse that followed in the late 1950s before Marvel "joined" the Silver Age, and the underground comics crash.

As Kitchen said of Will's quote: "It boiled down to 'Don't worry, kid. It'll be all right.'"

It says something about the course of the business that we have to ask which three times he might have meant, because there have been several. Yet each time, we've emerged  — almost always, by innovating our way out of it.

The challenge of the 1930s was simple viability. Would people buy this stuff? Early comic books were just reprints of comic strips, and right from the earliest circulation reports available in comics, for Famous Funnies, we see sales going down. So creators and their publishers answered with new material. And through Action and Detective and the others, we got a Golden Age.

The challenge of the 1950s was a double whammy: the collapse in readership across all demographics due to the expanded availability of television, even as opportunistic politicians targeted comics over their content. Many publishers fled rather than fight. So creators and their publishers answered by making super-hero comics interesting and circling the wagons around the most reliable demographic, adolescent males. We got a Silver Age — and while it made narrower an audience that was once broader, we lived to fight another day.

The challenge of the 1970s was in part a consequence of that narrowing, but also — somewhat similar to today — a result of an external shock: the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, and runaway inflation that made comic books so expensive, so quickly, that an already inefficient newsstand distribution system began to collapse. Marvel needed Star Wars to keep the doors open; DC had an implosion. This time, it was fans who came to the industry's rescue, setting themselves up as retailers and distributors and working with publishers to create the Direct Market, the most successful model in all of magazine publishing.

The challenge of the 1990s came when excesses in that model created a credit bubble, ballooning the number of comics shops far beyond what the audience could support — and the concomitant glut of more low-quality, gimmick-laden material than any store could shelve. By the time that bubble burst into the Distribution Wars, the crisis became where new customers would come from, as the newsstand had by then ceased to function as a channel for new readers. Innovation was again the way out, with the graphic novel allowing creators and publishers to repurpose content from periodicals in a way that would be profitable not just for comics retailers, but attractive to mainstream booksellers as well. Within 20 years, book channel dollar sales were nearly as large as the Direct Market.

We managed to make it through the 2010s without our regularly scheduled collapse; 2017 was part of a six-quarter stretch where the quality of releases just couldn't keep up with the blistering sales pace of the mid 2010s, but the comics shop market has been recovering from that, and indeed the decade was up 8% in that market, even after being adjusted for inflation. 2019 was an up year in the Direct Market, and a colossal one in the book trade.

As it turns out, the great test of the 2010s appears to have shown up just a bit late.

A POSSIBLE FUTURE


Which brings us to now, and what I told my friend. Again, I approach this with trepidation: I am often tagged with being too positive, because until now, none of the gyrations of the comics market in the 2000s have been even close to those earlier hair-raising close calls of the 20th Century. But if you were to ask me what a better-than-average outcome would look like...

…let’s visualize a spring of 2020 in which there is some international governmental recognition that all commerce has to be made whole, where enough cheap or free money floods the market where the clock is turned back, Christopher Reeve style. Let's assume that a number of debts and immediate obligations either are forgiven or postponed due to governmental decree or industry action. (Publishers and Diamond are working now on methods to reduce retailers' burdens; ComicsBeat is a great source for following those in-industry efforts.)

It will be too late for the shops like Lee’s Comics that moved to shutter right away, but given that new comics weren’t the majority product in a large number of stores anyway, the damage might not be utter and complete. Retailers have been diversifying since the tumult of the 1990s, and there’s an insulating layer of other product in a lot of stores. And while some of it is likewise suffering — no in-store gaming anywhere for a good while — a shop with a lot of merchandise has assets that will still be worth something whenever commerce revs up again.

And that merchandise includes the new periodicals shipping now, during this last week of March. Remember, unlike most other magazines, many comic books have a potentially unlimited sales life. They’re the magazines people keep — and the aftermarket, much derided, becomes everyone’s friend in a world in which we have a large number of titles in artificially limited supply. The “key comics” collectors can be counted on to soak up a certain amount of that product, presuming that they themselves are funded, and that the retailers who have those comics are willing and able to get them into the national marketplace. Back issues used to always be part of the standard comics shop not because they were ordering mistakes, but as a service; a lot of that activity has moved to the back room off the main floor, but it's still out there.

Now, to the other side of this — and the "after times" we know least about. Let's again visualize that we go through however many weeks it takes, and the word is given that the printers can operate and that the supply chain is running again. Cash flow, at this point, is the whole game. In 2000, the first X-Men movie was a major and much-needed hit — and yet it did retailers no good at all, as they were so cash-poor from seven years of bad sales that there were barely any extra X-Men comics on shelves.

See eBay listings for this book
So rather than rev up piecemeal, there’s a chance for the industry to recapitalize quickly by doing something it does really well: comics events. The biggest single day in comics history was in 1992 when Superman's death brought $30 million into stores; of late, we've been having colossal success with Free Comic Book Day, which was able to begin successfully in 2002 because retailers had cash from a decent 2001.

This time, the big event is New Comic Book Day — that is, the first "really" new one after the hiatus. Rather than bringing parts of the system online one at a time, publishers and Diamond would be well served to make sure that day is a big event — and since it's likely that not all parts of the country would be able to participate in it at once, supporting materials would be provided to stores for whenever their particular reopening day comes.

See listings for this book on eBay
With all of this, bonus material. The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks hit just six days after the release of Wolverine: The Origin #1, the comic book generally marking the end of the 1990s malaise — and instead of stunting that revival, the event became a rallying cry for the business, with multiple charitable relief and tribute issues heading quickly to shelves. Obviously, Coronavirus relief books could both help the afflicted, while also helping afflicted stores.

We'd have no illusions about what we're coming back to; we'll be looking at partial numbers when it comes to the retail base and publisher capacity for some time. People have dropped $10 million a week, more or less, in comics shops for the entire last decade; just getting near that would be a big victory. The key is to get cash in shops again — and then, once the train is running, Diamond slates Free Comic Book Day when everyone can take advantage of it. Spring starts, perhaps, in summer.

But again, all that depends on curing the virus first — and a world economy that hasn’t gone completely sideways.

A REASON FOR HOPE

As a science fiction and comics author, I imagine plenty of dark futures; as a parent, I truck in better ones. The above was one possible future, a happier one; it could go another way.

But in looking at any range of futures, we need to stick to facts. And there is one particular one that's heartening: COVID-19 has struck individuals and the economy — but the comics market was healthy before this. The book channel was doing crazily well — and the winter in the Direct Market was pretty good, as winters go. Conventions were packed in multiple cities the last weekend in February, including the one I was at in Richmond (where my bookseller sold out of my books by 1 p.m. Saturday). That's in February, smack in the middle of the quarter when the comics industry used to go to sleep.

The market wants to go back to that, almost as if it’s a living thing. It is a living thing — a machine made up of all of us. The obstacle is a virus, a plague; confronting it while protecting the vulnerable is the business of all, now. For our actual business, comics, it’s like we were in a car accident. A multi-car pile-up in the ice, where things are still moving and it's still too dangerous to help. We need time to judge the damage, time to pull everything apart and take stock, time to heal.

But there’s no need to reinvent something that wasn’t broken. The market was healthy before this.

What’s to become of us? That depends on doctors and the decisions of others who, hopefully, will be drawing on wise advice. But once our fate’s more fully in our hands again? I wouldn't bet against us.  Because as Will Eisner— such a great friend to comics shops that the retail industry's awards program was named for him — said, we've beaten the odds before. He's somewhere out there now, waiting to see what we do.

Comichron founder John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 25 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises.

He is the author of novels including 
Star Wars: KenobiStar Wars: A New DawnStar Trek: Discovery - The Enterprise War, and his July release, Star Trek: Discovery - Die StandingRead more about them at his fiction site.

Be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook, and check out our Youtube channel. You can also support us on Patreon!

Monday, March 23, 2020

Diamond suspends shipments of new releases beginning with April 1 on-sale comics

by John Jackson Miller

In response to the COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic, Diamond Comic Distributors has hit pause on new comic book releases. Product set with an April 1 on-sale date or later will not be shipped until after the crisis is over. Read the full release here.

Diamond founder and owner Steve Geppi wrote, "We are hearing from thousands of retailers that they can no longer service their customers as they have in the past, many of them forced to close by government action or resort to in-person or curbside delivery. Even those still open are seeing reduced foot traffic in most cases, a situation that seems likely to worsen with time."

"Our publishing partners are also faced with numerous issues in their supply chain, working with creators, printers, and increasing uncertainty when it comes to the production and delivery of products for us to distribute. Our freight networks are feeling the strain and are already experiencing delays, while our distribution centers in New York, California, and Pennsylvania were all closed late last week. Our own home office in Maryland instituted a work from home policy, and experts say that we can expect further closures. Therefore, my only logical conclusion is to cease the distribution of new weekly product until there is greater clarity on the progress made toward stemming the spread of this disease."

Geppi wrote that distribution would continue from the Olive Branch, Miss., center to safely continue fulfillment of direct ship reorders for the retailers who are able to receive new product and need it to service their customers. But today, Memphis, Tenn. — of which Olive Branch is a suburb — instituted shelter-in-place rules for residents and businesses, and while that is across the state line and doesn't impact distribution, it surely affects many of Diamond's employees. Memphis's case count has dramatically grown in recent days; I have family there and was supposed to be there this past weekend for MidSouthCon (now rescheduled to 2021) so I've been checking the data regularly.

The situation is unprecedented in comics history — the presses still ran and comics shipped even during World War II. The issues didn't survive long due to paper drives, but the number of new releases increased annually throughout the war. But the stores were all open and people could get to them. (And printers were still printing them, which seems not to be the case given reports of at least one significant imminent closure.) There's never been a case in the last 80 years where the mobility and buying power of almost the entire general public has been curtailed in the way they have been this month.

Comics are, as I've said many times, quite resilient as a business; sales absolutely exploded after World War II was over, with the number of new releases ballooning. It took TV and the juvenile delinquency scare to bring it back down to Earth... yet it would rebound from that — twice. This time, it will be far from the only industry looking for ways to bounce back.

Be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook, and check out our Youtube channel. You can also support us on Patreon!

Monday, March 16, 2020

February 2020 comics sales estimates online: Wolverine #1 above 190k copies

by John Jackson Miller


Our February 2020 comics sales estimates are now online. Wolverine #1 was the bestseller with more than 190,000 copies moved in North America in a month in which sales significantly exceeded those from the same month in the previous year. With the effects of Coronavirus yet to play out on the continent's commercial scene, the Direct Market at least began 2020 on the positive side, up 1.35% overall.

Batman #88 and #89 moved into fourth and fifth places respectively once the cardstock variants were included. We've set up our 2020 so far page to reflect merged totals on all such issues.

Be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook, and check out our Youtube channel. You can also support us on Patreon!

Friday, March 13, 2020

Comics market strong prior to COVID-19 impact, with February sales up 7%; Wolverine #1 dominates


by John Jackson Miller

Over the last 80+ years, the comics industry has been subject to a variety of shocks that were external in nature. The ones that had the greatest lasting effects were the ones that struck directly at how publishers did business: the juvenile delinquency panic of the 1950s winnowed out their numbers, while the inflation crises of the 1970s made the newsstand untenable as a delivery system.

Meanwhile, some external shocks that related more generally to the U.S. economy have had less impact. The comics industry didn't slow down until well after 2008 financial crisis was past, for example, and the 1990-91 recession ended up being no impediment to the record early 1990s comics market at all. The month of 9/11 was, in fact, a turning point in the industry's fortunes, as the comic book that kickstarted the post-1990s recovery, Wolverine: The Origin #1, had already hit shelves on Sept. 5, 2001.

Historians always want to look at the "before" and "after" situation in the market to see how things were doing just before the shock took place. When it comes to the COVID-19 or Coronavirus pandemic, we can say that the "before" situation in comics looked excellent in the book channel, and relatively strong (as winters go) in the Direct Market, according to data just released by Diamond Comic Distributors. Retailers bought $37.27 million in comic books, graphic novels, and magazines from Diamond in February 2020, an increase of $2.4 million or 7% over the same month the year before. Every subcategory was positive. Look for our estimated sales charts here next week.

 Find this comic at TFAWMarvel and DC's dollar sales were both up for the month, year-over-year, and both by more than the market was overall, 12% and 8% respectively. February 2020 marks the seventh growth month in nine, and is the best February performance in three years. With these results, the Direct Market's first two months are up 1.35% in dollars over the same period in 2019.

Orders of individual comic books were also up: orders rose year-over-year by 3%, or around 167,000 copies, to 5.94 million units. Wolverine #1, a $7.99 comic, led the periodical charts. Marvel had eight of the Top 10 comics, including the top seven. Gwen Stacy #1 debuted in fourth.

A major part of the difference in sales is that February 2019 saw DC still amid its new-title austerity initiative; it only released 59 new comic books that month. This February, Diamond says DC released 102, which is probably more like 86 when the cardstock covers are merged. Publishers outside the Top 10 also significantly boosted their offerings, leading to a slate that was about 18% larger.

 Find this book at TFAW
The greatest jump, however, was in the number of graphic novel units sold: that's because Marvel had a major sale on Star Wars collected editions in February, resulting in the unusual situation that no less than six titles from 2015 and 2016 made the Top 10 Graphic Novels list.

There have been many other months over the years where discounted titles impacted the charts, but never have so many made the Top 10. The dollar rankings chart is thus probably worth more attention this time around. Both charts were led by the Harleen hardcover. It doesn't appear that the sale added overmuch to Marvel's market share — dollars are computed against what retailers paid in, and individual graphic novels sell many fewer copies than comic books do.

Batman #88 and #89 both had cardstock variants; look for them to possibly move from their eighth- and tenth-place showings when the cardstock and regular variants are merged.

The comparative sales statistics are here:


DollarsUnits
February 2020 vs. January 2020
Comics-8.25%-7.75%
Graphic Novels-27.16%-13.89%
Total Comics/Graphic Novels-14.25%-8.26%
Toys-22.37%-34.10%
February 2020 vs. February 2019
Comics+8.78%+2.90%
Graphic Novels+3.56%+15.46%
Total Comics/Graphic Novels+7.32%+3.77%
Toys+0.83%-14.97%
Year-To-Date 2020 vs. Year-To-Date 2019
Comics+0.12%-3.45%
Graphic Novels+4.44%+6.60%
Total Comics/Graphic Novels+1.35%-2.72%
Toys+2.59%-15.75%

The February-to-January slide is not worth too much attention, as January had one more New Comic Book Day, if only one with a partial release schedule.

The market shares:

PublisherDollar ShareUnit Share
Marvel41.85%47.30%
DC29.00%30.16%
Image6.02%5.41%
IDW3.47%3.14%
Dark Horse2.93%2.06%
Boom2.58%2.64%
Viz2.24%0.87%
Dynamite2.11%2.04%
Random House0.62%0.18%
Titan0.56%0.45%
Other8.61%5.74%

The top-selling comics by units:

TOP COMIC BOOKS (by units)PRICEPUBLISHER
1Wolverine #1$7.99Marvel
2X-Men #6$3.99Marvel
3X-Men #7$4.99Marvel
4Gwen Stacy #1$4.99Marvel
5Giant Size X-Men: Jean Grey & Emma Frost #1$4.99Marvel
6Amazing Spider-Man #39$3.99Marvel
7Star Wars: Darth Vader #1$4.99Marvel
8Batman #88$3.99DC
9X-Men/Fantastic Four #1$4.99Marvel
10Batman #89$3.99DC

The top-selling comics by dollars:

TOP COMIC BOOKS (by dollars)PRICEPUBLISHER
1Wolverine #1$7.99Marvel
2X-Men #7$4.99Marvel
3X-Men #6$3.99Marvel
4Gwen Stacy #1$4.99Marvel
5Giant Size X-Men: Jean Grey & Emma Frost #1$4.99Marvel
6Star Wars: Darth Vader #1$4.99Marvel
7X-Men/Fantastic Four #1$4.99Marvel
8Batman: Curse of the White Knight #7$4.99DC
9The Joker: Killer Smile #3$5.99DC
10DC Crimes of Passion #1$9.99DC

The top-selling graphic novels by units. Fourth through ninth are all older editions which sold big in Marvel's sale:

TOP GRAPHIC NOVELS (by units)PRICEPUBLISHER
1Harleen HC$29.99 DC
2Die Vol. 2: Split The Party$16.99Image
3Batman Tales: Once Upon A Crime$9.99DC
4Star Wars: Darth Vader Vol. 4: End Of Games$19.99Marvel
5Star Wars: Journey to Star Wars: The Force Awakens: Shattered Empire HC$24.99Marvel
6Star Wars: Vader Down$19.99Marvel
7Star Wars: Chewbacca$16.99Marvel
8Star Wars Volume 2: Showdown on the Smuggler's Moon$19.99Marvel
9Star Wars Volume 3: Rebel Jail$19.99Marvel
10My Hero Academia Vol. 23$9.99Viz

The top-selling graphic novels by dollars:

TOP GRAPHIC NOVELS (by dollars)PRICEPUBLISHER
1Harleen HC$29.99DC
2X-Men Vs. Apocalypse: The Twelve Omnibus HC$125.00Marvel
3Spider-Man: Miles Morales Omnibus HC$100.00Marvel
4Marvel Masterworks: Uncanny X-Men Vol. 12 HC$100.00Marvel
5Daredevil By Bendis & Maleev Omnibus Vol. 2 HC$100.00Marvel
6Die Vol. 2: Split The Party$16.99Image
7Marvel Masters Of Suspense: Stan Lee & Steve Ditko Omnibus Vol. 2 HC$100.00Marvel
8Ultimates By Mark Millar & Bryan Hitch Omnibus HC$100.00Marvel
9Berserk Deluxe Edition Volume 4 HC$49.99Dark Horse
10Metabarons Box Set HC$149.95Humanoids

Finally, the number of new items offered:

PublisherComics
shipped
Graphic
Novels
shipped
Magazines
shipped
Total
shipped
Marvel92470139
DC102271130
Image398047
Viz040040
IDW2810038
Dark Horse2017037
Dynamite294033
Boom178025
Yen018018
Titan74213
Other14113424299
TOTAL SHIPPED47531727819

With this data, we can say that the comics shop market's year had begun on a positive note, prior to the widening of the outbreak in North America in March. Many conventions have been canceled or postponed due to the pandemic as of this writing, and Diamond has cancelled its retailer summit, originally slated for April.

We of course don't know what the ultimate impact of the virus will be, but it's difficult to find a historical equivalent even if we limit the question just to what has happened so far. Many years have seen winter weather disrupt shipments and store visits to parts of North America, but this crisis affects more areas and comes with an additional economic component in the roiled financial markets. The mechanism of the Direct Market itself tends toward stability — because of subscription files, one month's orders usually look a lot like the previous month's. But it's unclear how that functions if customer visit frequency is disrupted.

Remember, too, that since orders are already placed, it could be some time before the charts reflect any external events. Reorders for March and April are already charting. Follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook and support our Patreon to be alerted as more data comes in.



Comichron founder John Jackson Miller has tracked the comics industry for more than 25 years, including a decade editing the industry's retail trade magazine; he is the author of several guides to comics, as well as more than a hundred comic books for various franchises.

He is the author of novels including 
Star Wars: KenobiStar Wars: A New DawnStar Trek: Discovery - The Enterprise War, and his July release, Star Trek: Discovery - Die StandingRead more about them at his fiction site.

Be sure to follow Comichron on Twitter and Facebook, and check out our Youtube channel. You can also support us on Patreon!
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